Market Commentary January 2026

As every year, January is a particularly busy month for real estate investments. The IMMO26 trade fair, held in mid-January, once again provided important guidance for the coming months. In this context, political decisions remain a central topic, often characterized by contradictions. For example, more than 60% of city residents complain about a housing shortage, while at the same time 50% to 70% of them oppose increased densification or the construction of high-rise buildings. Furthermore, the authorities are demanding better tenant protection, even though tenants already have the option of requesting a rent reduction due to the lowering of the reference interest rate – a right that more than 50% of tenants do not exercise. Demographic differences between the cantons are also beginning to emerge. According to MoneyPark, population aging and declining demand could pose challenges in several cantons, including Ticino, Bern, Jura, and Graubünden, in the medium term. At the macroeconomic level, the deteriorating global political environment continues to support the Swiss franc and maintain high demand for real estate, particularly from foreign investors. However, assessments of the remaining market potential diverge, particularly in relation to current stock market valuations: Morgan Stanley considers Swiss Prime Site overvalued, while UBS holds the opposite view. The market's reaction is evident in the launch of new products and capital increases, in an environment where this additional liquidity must be reinvested at already high price levels. The market entry of the Mobifonds and the planned launch in spring of a new real estate fund focused on commercial properties by Swiss Life on the SIX stock exchange are likely to have a noticeable impact on further market developments. 

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