October was marked by pronounced volatility in Swiss listed real estate funds. Following a positive start, the SWIIT reached a monthly high of around 600 points before coming under significant selling pressure. Ahead of the Solvalor and UBS Direct Mixed Urban capital increases, selling by passive investors pushed the index down by more than 4% within days. Dividend distributions subsequently triggered a reversal and a strong recovery. Real estate equities remained more stable, with large-cap stocks benefiting from demand amid broader equity market uncertainty. Interest rates remain the key market driver. Swiss inflation rose to 1.0% in September (August: 0.8%), mainly reflecting base effects and higher energy prices. While the SNB maintained its policy rate at 0%, markets increasingly anticipate rate hikes during 2027. International inflation concerns pushed long-term bond yields higher, with Swiss capital market rates also rising, albeit more moderately. Fixed-rate mortgage costs had already increased noticeably in the third quarter. Portfolio quality, resilient rental income and sound financing structures therefore remain essential investment criteria. Valuations have become more balanced, with the average fund premium to NAV declining to 26.8%, compared with approximately 38% at the end of February. Capital market activity continues to influence short-term pricing. Around CHF 3.9 billion had been raised by early October, with a further CHF 950 million announced for the fourth quarter. The proposed tightening of the Lex Koller remains a regulatory uncertainty. Following the National Council’s approval of a motion in September, potential restrictions on foreign investment in listed real estate vehicles could affect demand and liquidity. However, the legislative process remains ongoing.
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