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Market Commentary September 2026

Pleasant September weather contrasted with weaker prices across Swiss listed real estatefunds and equities. International interest rates and bond yields weighed onvaluations. Higher energy prices and persistent inflation pushed long-termyields higher, while Switzerland remained largely insulated. Inflation remainslow and the SNB kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, maintaining attractivefinancing conditions and supporting real estate relative to bonds. Residentialmarket data continue to confirm the structural supply shortage. The nationwidevacancy rate declined for the sixth consecutive year to 0.93%, with vacantrental apartments falling further. Despite an increase in planning applicationsand building permits, meaningful growth in the housing stock is not expectedbefore 2027. A rapid easing of supply constraints therefore remains unlikely.The mortgage reference rate remained unchanged at 1.25%. High capital-marketactivity also weighed on real estate funds. New issuances temporarily absorbsecondary-market liquidity and put pressure on prices. At the same time,successful placements confirm that investor appetite for Swiss real estateremains intact. We therefore view part of the recent weakness as technicalrather than fundamental. Regarding the Lex Koller, the National Council votedin favour of tightening the existing framework. This remains a legislativeproposal rather than an enacted change and will next be considered by theCouncil of States. We do not expect any immediate impact. The weakness inlisted prices contrasts with the sector’s solid fundamentals. Markets reactquickly to changes in interest rates and sentiment, while property incomestreams adjust more gradually. Rising yields can compress premiums to NAVwithout materially affecting the underlying quality or earnings capacity of theportfolios. Such periods may create attractive opportunities, although carefulselection remains essential. Our constructive view remains unchanged: lowinterest rates, a vacancy rate below 1%, strong demand and limited new supplycontinue to support Swiss real estate. While short-term volatility is likely toremain elevated, we continue to see more opportunities than risks over themedium to long term.

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