Market Commentary May 2025

Annual and semi-annual reports of real estate products now often begin with a familiar statement: “We are pleased to inform you that our results are solid.” However, such a statement is no longer sufficient, particularly when management fails to present a compelling strategic positioning. The outlook for 2025 is positive: valuations are recovering, and financing costs are declining. Despite the lower reference interest rate, only a few tenants are requesting rent reductions, which is reflected in rising rental income. Demand for real estate remains high, and investors continue to anticipate a prolonged negative interest rate environment. As a result, both real estate prices and the share prices of listed funds and equities are recording significant gains. Nevertheless, it is well known that markets do not move in a straight line. The extraordinary strength of the Swiss real estate market is surprising, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical developments and media spectacles orchestrated by “Uncle Donald.” At the same time, short-term volatility is increasing, and credit risks are coming into sharper focus. Claudio Saputelli of UBS expects that banks will need to revise their lending standards over the medium term, which will likely lead to more restrictive credit issuance, particularly for private investors. Since the beginning of the year, a trend toward deleveraging has become apparent, and with several capital increases announced, the coming summer is expected to be an active one. In the area of sustainability, the picture is mixed: according to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, around 52% of buildings in Switzerland are still heated using fossil fuels. The highest proportion is found in Neuchâtel (66%), while Basel-Stadt reports the lowest at 27%. Although all Swiss asset managers now claim to have sustainability strategies, what matters is their credible and measurable implementation. Increasingly, products are aligning with established standards such as SSREI or GRESB. Sustainable portfolio optimization requires time, diligence, and a strong commitment to long-term value creation. In this context, the focus on "risk-adjusted returns" is becoming ever more important. Finally, even the Swiss market is not immune to the effects of geopolitical communication strategies, Uncle Donald remains active.

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