MV Invest

Market Commentary May 2024

The indirect real estate market is in a transitional phase: various corporate actions in the coming weeks are leading to investor caution, resulting in increased volatility. Meanwhile, the resilient and fundamentally strong Swiss market, along with positive interest rate developments, are fostering confidence as investor trust gradually returns. However, important questions remain: Is the sustainable transformation of the building stock being given enough weight in asset management? Can managers truly deliver on their promises? Politically, the focus is currently on the issue of housing shortages. Increased immigration numbers have prompted the SVP to launch the initiative "No 10-Million-Switzerland," which demands that the permanent resident population does not exceed ten million before 2050. The views of politicians and the construction and real estate industries on possible solutions to the housing shortage diverge. Additionally, during the summer session, both the National Council and the Council of States will address questions regarding transparency in the real estate market, rental yields, and ecological measures. The Swiss Real Estate Association (VIS) recommends that the councils reject almost all motions, stating that they are simply not effective (more details at www.vis-ais.ch). It should be noted, however, that not everything is decided at the federal level: initiatives concerning housing protection, pre-emptive rights, and environmental protection are handled and decided at the cantonal or municipal level. Nevertheless, the Federal Council plays a significant role, whether through the UVEK department led by Federal Councillor Rösti, which also includes the Federal Roads Office (ASTRA), or the WBF department led by Federal Councillor Parmelin, which tries to bring the industry and politics together. Various developments in cantonal tenancy law (keyword tenant protection) are not really new. This situation has been a reality in the cantons of Geneva and Vaud for over 50 years. This fact has not hindered the success of indirect real estate investment products focused on Western Switzerland. 

 

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