MV Invest

Market Commentary April 2024

The real estate funds were unable to sustain the strong growth seen over the past 5 months. Profit-taking has set in, which could have various reasons. Of particular concern are the high premiums on residential real estate funds, sometimes exceeding 40%. In contrast, real estate stocks with similar portfolios are still trading at a discount. The announced capital increases have led to an overload and cooling off of the real estate funds. The lack of conviction among some managers to justify additional engagement is leading to a loss of trust. Opinions on the potential of the planned merger between Novavest and SenioResidenz differ: while the boards of directors are enthusiastic, Novavest's share price has fallen since the announcement. Are the anticipated benefits for investors simply not tangible enough? The uneven distribution of benefits in the exchange ratio was unfortunately not adequately considered. Additionally, both portfolios carry different risks. Shareholders will have the opportunity to decide on the proposal at the extraordinary general meeting. While real estate funds are structured like preferred shares and therefore do not have voting rights, shareholders can and should defend their interests. The restructuring of Ina Invest's structure has been approved. Shifting a larger block of shares brought in a new major shareholder, which was welcomed by the market. Procimmo is restructuring by terminating the contract with their fund management, which will now be handled internally. The merger of the fund managements of UBS and CS is now just a formality; further considerations will likely be presented by UBS by the end of the year. As inflation in Europe continues to decline and an interest rate cut by the ECB becomes more likely, it is now certain that a rate cut by the Fed will be further delayed. The extent to which this will influence the upcoming decisions of the SNB remains to be seen. We can envision a scenario in which the SNB promptly makes the next downward interest rate move, prompting larger investors to adjust their allocation towards real estate investments at the expense of bonds.

 

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