After 20 years of a real estate boom, with declining discount rates, we all need to refocus on the fact that valuation fundamentally consists of two components: cash flow and discount rate. The interpretation of the average discount rate communicated by many market participants will become more complex in the future, as especially in distressed properties (or portfolios), a devaluation and a declining discount rate are not mutually exclusive. The annual results of real estate stocks confirm that the market reflects our solid economy. The stable political situation also contributes to this. Nevertheless, there is consolidation among investors. While institutional investors maintain or slightly reduce their real estate allocation, larger private investors are stepping in, taking advantage of portfolio clean-ups for new purchases at better terms than in the last 2-3 years. Contrary to the negative expectations of some investors regarding the Swiss real estate market’s development, Swiss real estate products paint a different picture. With rising rental income and stabilized interest costs, the industry proves that real estate provides good inflation protection. With perspective and good management, additional and long-term value can even be created. Following a net migration of 100,000 in 2023, new housing units still need to be built. Quick-buildable land is being sought, and finally, even the Federal Council is addressing this issue. Only few actors have land reserves. With stable or expectedly declining interest rates, construction activity in the residential sector should pick up in the next 12 months. An annual performance of 3-4% for real estate investments with an investment horizon of 7- to 10 years can still be expected. The recent price increases in real estate funds give many managers hope to reduce their mortgage burden through new capital increases, but are investors ready again? Will the upcoming dividends be reinvested or used for payout?

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